Oregon is expected to see more than 170,000 additional jobs created between 2023 and 2033, with significant gains in the size of the workforce in construction, warehousing, and healthcare.
Construction / mechanics
Employment projections from the Oregon Employment Department forecast a 19.8% increase in electrician jobs between 2023 and 2033. Painters and drywall and ceiling tile installers are expected to see more than 17% growth over the decade. Jobs for solar panel installers and wind turbine service technicians are each projected to increase more than 40%, but both are small fields, so that means around 100 new jobs each.
Nearly 3,000 new construction laborer jobs are anticipated over the decade, for 16.4% growth. More than a third of those jobs will be in the Portland tri-county area, the most recent biennial employment projections show.
On the whole, construction and extraction occupations are expected to grow 14.3% and installation, maintenance and repair jobs are expected to grow 9.8% — both above the overall job growth rate of 7.8%.
Manufacturing and trade
Retail trade is one of the largest industries in Oregon, accounting for nearly 208,000 jobs in 2023. Jobs in the industry had increased by more than 8% in the past decade, but over the next decade, only 2% growth is projected.
Employment department economist Sarah Cunningham said the projected slowdown is in part due to the rise of online shopping and delivery services. Oregon’s transportation and warehousing industry grew a whopping 46% over the last decade, Cunningham said. The industry is expected to grow another 12% by 2033. Jobs filling online orders and driving delivery trucks will increase.
Health and social services
Health care jobs are expected to jump up 14% over the decade. The largest increases are projected for advanced practice medical providers like nurse practitioners (52.1%) and physician assistants (36.2%).
A national shortage of veterinarians has been ongoing for years, particularly in rural areas. Jobs for veterinarians, veterinary assistants, and veterinary technicians are expected to increase by 25.3% by 2033.
The number of substance abuse and mental health counselors is expected to increase 20.2% over the next decade.
Job openings
Job openings created by people retiring or otherwise leaving the labor force far outnumber openings created by businesses growing. An average of 17,000 new jobs each year are projected over the next decade, while 248,000 jobs will open up each year to replace workers who leave.
Across Oregon, nearly one out of every four workers is age 55 or older, meaning within a decade of retirement benefit eligibility. The rate is slightly higher in manufacturing, meaning more jobs are expected to open up in the next decade. Manufacturing is expected to add 11,800 new jobs over the decade, but more than 202,000 job openings are expected, Cunningham said.
Shrinking industries
Most industries are expected to see at least minimal growth. But across Oregon, the state is also projecting a decrease in jobs teaching kindergarten through high school students or adult basic education.
One out of every seven jobs for journalists are expected to disappear by 2033. Jobs printing or binding books, newspapers, or other publications are projected to drop 8%.
Office and administrative support jobs are also projected to shrink, with customer service jobs dropping by 1,700, or 6.3%, and secretary/assistant jobs dropping 3,375, or 10.6%.
