My 'six pick' predictions for Oregon's next Legislature

By TIM NESBITT

Unlike tomorrow’s Breeder’s Cup races, the contests for governor and the State Legislature in Oregon this year are relatively easy to handicap. The real races start after the election, when the stakes will be higher and the outcomes tougher to predict. But I’m a gambler, so I’m going to offer my “Pick Six” predictions for our next legislative session.

When the Republican candidate for governor runs a TV ad in which he proclaims, “I’m a Republican, but…,” you can count on this being a year when Democrats will cash a lot of winning tickets.

Their gains will be most telling in the State House, which Republicans have controlled since 1991. Now outnumbered 33 to 27, Democrats were optimistic of getting to 29 this year, with a plan to reach majority status in 2008. Now they’re likely to get to a 30-30 tie, with an outside possibility of reaching 31.

So the most likely trifecta has Governor Ted Kulongoski on top, the Senate Ds holding on to their majority in second, and the House Ds and Rs in a dead heat for third.

A 30-30 tie in the House will trigger a runoff of sorts, as the Democrats and Republicans wheel and deal to determine who becomes the next speaker. We could end up with a compromise candidate from either party or co-speakers from both. Either way, reserve a good seat in the gallery and expect to see a lot of photo finishes on the House floor.

But what are we rooting for? Keep in mind the many promises we heard from candidates in both parties on the big “Pick Six” issues.

1) Better Schools. Neither the House nor Senate is likely to get out in front of the governor on education. His Education Enterprise will set a high bar for K-12 funding, and he’ll get extra traction with a budget that provides $6 billion from existing resources. That money will buy smaller class sizes, a full school year, better training for new teachers, up-to-date textbooks and a full curriculum, with the restoration of music, art and PE in most schools. K-12 should be the big winner in the 2007 session.

2) Affordable Health Care. Gov. Kulongoski will try to run with Washington State by aligning our tobacco tax with theirs and using the proceeds to provide affordable health care for all children. Senators Ben Westlund and Alan Bates will go for a bigger purse with a more ambitious plan for health care for all children and most adults. Former Gov. John Kitzhaber will attempt to go the distance with a plan to reorganize health care for everyone with a prioritized list of cost-effective services. This is a crowded field, where the long shots will be seductive. I’ll provide a more complete assessment in a future column.

3) Tax Fairness. This issue plays out on a biased track. Revenue-raising measures must originate in the House and pass both chambers with a three-fifths vote. Very few good ideas make it to the finish line under those rules. Still, Gov. Kulongoski will bring new vigor and well-earned credibility to this effort. He had the guts to campaign on a tax fairness package that includes raising the corporate minimum tax — which has been stuck at $10 since Seabiscuit was a yearling. Raising this tax is long overdue. And, dedicating its proceeds to Head Start and college aid for middle-class families, as Kulongoski proposes, makes it the early favorite in a tough race.

4) Open elections. Advocates of the so-called open primary and fusion voting will ride proposals to change the dynamics of the major-party “match races” in future elections. My sympathies are with fusion voting, which can force the major parties to the middle of the track on winning issues like health care reform.

5) Good Government. Who asked our legislators to run free in Hawaii? We need them to get back on the track here in Oregon. The real contests in this category will involve campaign finance reform and restrictions on lobbying practices, like those unreported trips to Maui. There will be a lot of official winners in this field, but none will make a big impression.

6) Renewable Energy. When city dwellers can start filling their gas tanks with fuel grown by farmers in Eastern Oregon, we may finally start bridging the urban-rural divide — and start winning big for working families. This is the “super horse” that could finally live up to its potential to combine a good jobs agenda with environmental payoffs (slowing global warming) and national security credentials (weaning us from the Middle East). Whoever learns how to ride this horse could be a Triple Crown winner in future elections.

(Full disclosure: Not only do I play the horses, but I have financial ties, in the form of consulting contracts, with the Kulongoski for Governor campaign and the Working Families Party.)

Tim Nesbitt is former president of the Oregon AFL-CIO.